The restful summer holiday allows one to consider various scenarios, while shooting the breeze with family and friends. Braaivleis politics!
As we went into the shut down, several commentators were seen to deliver the verdict that with the spectre of three finance ministers in the space of less than 100 hours, the most powerful man in the country is quite arguably the new and improved version in Pravin Gordhan. He could not be fired given the circumstances leading up to his reappointment.
Perhaps not. Perhaps it is the collective heads of banking and industry, not only in the country, but on the continent. Recent reports of Zuma’s foot being held to the fire by Steven Koseff, Reuel Khoza, Maria Ramos, Bonang Mohale and others, not directly, but by way of them threatening the senior members of the ANC with dire economic consequences. Barclays made it easier by “leaking” the news that it would likely sell off ABSA. Ratings were changed from poor but stable to poor and negative.
Suddenly the big business community was prodded into action, and the balance of power has shifted. And now it appears that the real power is in the hands of capital, directing the “most powerful” politician, talking to the high and mighty members of the ANC, who are looking for a way of dealing with Zuma in a manner which saves some face for the organisation.
But politics is not always about reason and the good of the country. Zuma has many powers, and as he gets more and more desperate to cling to the mania, he will do other stupid things.